In this piece, Nairaland pundit senatordave analyzes President Buhari’s chances in the 2019 election.
Do you know that if you remove 198, 248 votes that Buhari got in SE and add to Jonathan’s 2,464,906.00 votes, that Buhari still won the election 2,175,263 votes?
Also, if you take the entire SS votes (418,590) to Buhari and give to Jonathan in addition to the entire SE votes to going to Jonathan, Buhari still won the election by 1,338,083 votes.
What this means is that with the entire SS and SE voting Jonathan, Buhari would have still won the election by over 1.3m votes.
Okay, you think Jonathan got no votes in the North? You are wrong. In NC he got 1,715,818 votes, in NW he got 1,339,709 votes and in NE he got 796,588 votes.
So he got a total of 3,852,115 in the North and if those entire votes are given to PMB, he would have won the election with over 10m votes (19,277,036 vs. 9,001,047).
Okay, you think the voting pattern would change this time as two Hausa-Fulani and Muslim brothers are running? I think so too.
But the first point is that you that is NOT a Northerner should know that your vote is insignificant. The North and to some extent the SW will determine who will always be the President as far as politics remains a game of number.
Okay, to that your thinking that the voting trend would change. Yes, Buhari WILL NEVER, I repeat WILL NEVER get only 7% of the votes cast in SE again. NEVER! They can’t write results again.
I am confident of 35% at least. And in SS, I am confident of 35% at least. 55% at least in SW. And in the North, Jonathan got 24% of the votes in 2015, I am confident that Atiku cannot get more than 35% of the votes cast in Northern Nigeria. And in absolute figures, Buhari would win by over 3m.
Anyway, the main issue here is that our votes in SE and SS can’t change anything if PMB gets 70% or more votes in the North and 55% or more votes in SW.